Decision Making

Life is mainly about decision making, it could be as big as who you marry; or small to what meal you choose to eat, it’s all relevant and impact your life experience.

First of all, how to measure decisions you make is sound or false. Even in the ultimate end it’s about whether the result is pleasing or not, in the short term, simply measuring correctness of decision based on outcome is near-sighted and could be mistaken.

The answer: we should always apply the decision based on more favored statistical outcome. For example, you are going to make a bet on a stock A and B, A’s winning probability is 90% while B’s is 10%, you should apparently choose A even you could end up with losing, which is 10% of the odd.

Second, once you know how to measure, the problem still exist as how to make decisions?

Always apply the following principles in decision making:

statistical thinking
logical thinking
long-term thinking
systematic thinking

What I emphasize here is systematic thinking. My interpretation is to build a system rather than do what’s need to do at the moment, or to think strategically rather than tactically.

Or, to put in another way, to build a system is to deliberate your habit, your routine. Such things as writing diary, creating blog, vlog, following a check list on to-do tasks. These a far more powerful in than new year resolution or one-time motivational action.

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